Bitcoin Author Says Market Hasn't Priced in Trump's Pro-Crypto Policies

As Bitcoin hovers in the mid-$90,000 range ahead of President Trump’s second inauguration, many in the crypto community are speculating on how the administration’s policies could reshape the market.

Fred Krueger, author of The Big Bitcoin Book, believes the market hasn’t fully accounted for the potential impacts of Trump’s pro-crypto stance, likening the situation to the lead-up to the Bitcoin ETF approval in 2024.

“You could have bought Bitcoin at $35,000 [before the ETF approval], and people would say, ‘Well, it’s priced in,’” Krueger recalled. “It’s almost three times that price right now.” The same logic, he argued, applies to the Trump administration's potential crypto policies. “I don’t think the Trump administration has [been] priced in at all to Bitcoin.”

Krueger expects the administration’s approach to usher in a completely different dynamic for crypto assets. He highlighted several areas of change, including increased institutional acceptance and a potential reversal of what he described as “covert attacks” on Bitcoiners and Bitcoin-related companies. “There’s been this covert attack… they basically tried to de-bank them,” he said, referencing challenges faced by the crypto sector under the Biden administration. Krueger anticipates these challenges will diminish, making it easier for individuals and institutions to hold and use Bitcoin without fear of losing access to banking services.

Coinage heard very similar arguments coming from SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, which left many in the crypto community bullish to wrap up the year. "If it changes from a majority of Commissioners who don't want things to go through to a majority of Commissioners who do want things to go through, then yeah, it's easier," she said, noting that after Chair Gensler steps down on January 20, the road ahead for pro-crypto policies gets decisively easier.

This shift, Krueger suggested, could lead to a surge in Bitcoin adoption. “The chance of you not being able to use that Bitcoin or losing your bank account from that Bitcoin I think is going way down,” he said, adding that as this reality sets in, more people will likely decide to invest in Bitcoin.

Krueger also pointed to a broader macroeconomic backdrop that he believes supports Bitcoin’s continued growth. While acknowledging the volatility inherent in crypto markets, he urged investors to think long-term. “You really need to think more long-term about… do you have a sufficient amount of Bitcoin? Is that Bitcoin safe?”

Addressing concerns about volatility, Krueger dismissed short-term fluctuations as distractions. “The story of Bitcoin is very, very solid,” he said. “A year ago, we were at $37,000. We’ve done very, very well in the last 12 months, and I think we’re going to do very, very well in the next 12 months.”

While Krueger expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory, he also cautioned against overcomplicating investment strategies. “You don’t need to be too smart about this. You don’t need to be buying Stack or [Bitcoin] Layer-2s or anything else. You can just buy Bitcoin, and that’s the trade. Don’t complicate it too much.” Coinage's community might not necessarily agree after nominating Stacks and Solana to our final in our Crypto Project of the Year series.

Nonetheless, Krueger’s remarks underscore a growing consensus that 2025 could be a pivotal year for Bitcoin, with both macroeconomic factors and regulatory shifts aligning to drive adoption. As the Trump administration prepares to take office, the crypto market appears poised for a new wave of momentum — one that, if Krueger’s predictions hold, could significantly boost Bitcoin’s value in the coming months.

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