A Bitcoin Bottom Could Be Forming as Trump's Tariff Front Cracks

The idea that crypto might be decoupling from the rest of the macro pain was fun to believe for a second.

But almost as soon as Tyler Winklevoss tweeted that sentiment out, Bitcoin resumed its sell-off in lockstep with the rest of markets (and he even got hit with an X community note that will live in infamy.)

So if Bitcoin is still tied to traditional market fundamentals, what does that mean for where we go from here? According to Bitcoin expert and Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Sean Farrell, Bitcoin could be nearing a tradable bottom as Trump’s tariff gambit faces pressure among key players to ease up.

The ‘Fake News’ Tariff Swings

The markets kicked off another whipsaw day with Trump’s tariff architect Peter Navarro attempting to defend the tariff plans. Speaking on CNBC, Navarro attempted to urge calm among retail traders and touted “the biggest tax cut in America history — the broadest-base tax cut in America history is coming in a matter of months, so any discussion of recession seems silly when you factor that in.”

President Trump urged the same message on Truth Social (which should tell you who still has the President’s ear.) But over the weekend, Elon Musk broke from ranks and attacked Navarro, saying “he ain’t built s—t” in a response to someone’s post on X.

Navarro tried to say everything is fine between Trump’s advisors, but clearly as Tesla shares have dropped nearly 40% on the year, Musk is starting to push back on the idea of protectionism. In an interview over the weekend, Musk said the US and Europe should seek to get to a zero-tariff environment and get back to free trade.

Those cracks forming push Trump into an awkward spot to try and maintain his front at the negotiating table (and continue to have adversaries believe he won’t back down.) China appears to be calling his bluff, which led Trump to triple down by announcing China’s tariffs would be raised to 50% if China doesn’t come to the negotiating table.

Throughout the day, Bitcoin swung back and forth on the headlines — including one report that Trump was considering a 90-day extension on reciprocal tariffs (which swung the Nasdaq higher more than 3%) before the White House derided it as “fake news.”

All in all, Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell tells us, “if you assume that Trump is going to find a way to achieve some kind of Mar a Lago accord … it’s going to require a weaker dollar … and so that would be a great environment for Bitcoin and crypto to succeed.”

• How to play it: Sean tells us there seems to be longer-term support at these levels and generally the theme seems to be that risk-reward is skewed to the upside.

  “I would say that the mid-$70s is probably a good place to take a swing,” he says. “If we move below that range, perhaps we're probably entering a bit a bit of a no man's land.”

Outside Pressures Mount

Pressure to find an exit on trade has not only mounted inside Trump’s circles. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz has also grown louder about midterms turning into a “bloodbath” for Republicans if the US is sent into a recession. Goldman Sachs upped their odds of that happening to 45% from 35% over the weekend.

But noted Trump proponents on Wall Street have been changing their tune as well. Bill Ackman famously supported Trump in December of 2024. “President Trump will do nothing that interferes with the success of the country, the success of the economy.”

But this weekend, he was gunning for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and urging the President to hit the pause button on tariffs. “To state the obvious, it does not help our country’s and our president’s negotiating position to be trying to strike deals while our market is collapsing.,” he said, essentially later calling on Lutnick to be fired.

Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein joined the chorus of Wall Street execs who were stunned, tweeting: “Make the 10pct min tariff immediate but defer the “reciprocal” part 6 mos. Take the win! The Prez said he’d make us tired of winning…I’m there now!”

It’s All on Trump

Now, all eyes are on Trump to see how we wants to proceed. His window to operate may be shrinking. His external and internal battles will be difficult to manage — but for now, it doesn’t appear that the Fed is any rush to make moves. Fed Chair Jay Powell essentially said they are in no rush and will wait and see how Trump’s tariff moves play out.

The ball is in Trump’s court. Bitcoin’s next swing may be up to the mercy of the President.

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