SBF Facing a 90% Chance of Conviction, According to Madoff’s Prosecutor

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is facing overwhelming odds as his trial heads into the final chapter, according to the prosecutor who took down Bernie Madoff.

For months, Coinage has been consulting with attorney Marc Litt ever since we secured an exclusive preview of Sam Bankman-Fried’s proposed defense.

Now, as the jury begins its deliberations, Litt calculates SBF only has a 10% chance of acquittal on the blend of fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy charges he now faces.

“You can't predict juries, and all it takes is one to have a hung jury,” Litt told Coinage Thursday in the above interview. “And, you know, the jurors will want to be careful and and go through the instructions and the evidence and each of the charges and take the time to discuss each one of them.”

That said, having received the official guidance from Judge Kaplan Thursday afternoon, Litt said a verdict could be reached within hours if they think the prosecution successfully removed any question of Sam’s guilt.

“Three hours of deliberation, I would say, is about the minimum for a case like this,” Litt said. “The maximum before I'd start thinking that there was a hung jury or even potentially an acquittal – although I'm dubious that would happen – is more like a week.”

On Thursday morning, assistant US prosecutor Danielle Sassoon continued to argue in favor of a conviction during the government’s rebuttal to the defense’s closing argument. 

She pointed out that SBF had been able to dupe the media, and his customers – she pleaded with the jury to avoid the same fate.

"The defendant knew what he was doing was wrong, and that's why he didn't hire a chief risk officer," she concluded. "Don't fall for his lies …. find him guilty."

Sam Bankman-Fried’s defense attorney Mark Cohen spent his last time in front of the jury doing his best to introduce doubt as to what Sam’s intent actually was.

“The question of whether Sam's business judgment was reasonable, even if it later turned out to be mistaken, is not a criminal one,” he told jurors.

As the jury deliberates, Coinage is asking what you think. Vote in our on-chain Snapshot poll to weigh in on the SBF trial. Is Sam Bankman-Fried guilty? NFT holders can vote now. 

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Disclosure: Alameda Ventures is one investor among many in Trustless Media, the production company behind Coinage.